There are 2,730 possible output permutations from the draft lottery (15 x 14 x 13), each with its own probability of occurrence. This makes it very difficult to calculate the overall probabilities for each team. Our mathematical skills are not up to this challenge.
Instead, to compute the overall probabilites after the 3 lottery rounds, we run the draft lottery over 100,000 times and count the number of times each team ends up picking in a particular position. Brute force grinds the problem into dust!
Tap/click the button below to start the simulation. This may take a while depending on your machine and browser performance.
Highest probability position for a team is shown in green, lowest in red, others in blue.
Gray cells show impossible picking positions.
Values may differ slightly from the nominal values above. This is a simulation, not the real thing!
The data shows that the worst team is most likely to pick 4th with probability >50% and least likely to pick 3rd with a probability >14%! Did you expect that?
R: games remaining W: wins RO: regulation + overtime wins L: losses O: overtime + shootout losses P: points %: win percentage M: momentum P 1st: probability of picking 1st O/A 1st: odds against picking 1st
P 1st: probability of picking 1st P 2nd: probability of picking 2nd P 3rd: probability of picking 3rd Change: change relative to standings